Advisors to the current govt are eminently qualified to write a step by step manual on how to brew up a rebellion.
The country is facing unprecedented economic distress, informal sector which enployes 93 percent of people is in disarray. Monetory adventurism has broken credit and supply chains of informal sector which accounted for nearly half of country’s economic activity. According to small and medium industry body reports, more than 50 lakhs units have shut down impacting nearly 3 – 4 cr people directly and as many indirectly . Unemployment is at historic high, even the formal sector is witnessing a slowdown of proportions never seen before. Various reports indicate that informal economy may have shrunk by as much as 30%.
What do you think these people, shopless and jobless, desperate and angry, are doing ?

Blissfully ignorant of consequences of these realities, some ideological absolutists in govt figured this was just the right time to anger, provoke and brutalise students and youth, right time to open confrontation with the most volatile section in any population.

Student unrest, history reckons, has undone the most powerful of all rulers. Indira Gandhi achieved what none before or after could even come close to – she broke Pakistan into two. If “pakistan inherited a moth-eaten pakistan” in Jinna’s words, formation of Bangladesh made that moth wingless as well. However, in less than 3 years students across India were on the streets, they had waged a war on war hero Indira. A war, like all those before her, she was destined to lose. Years later her son Rajiv Gandhi had to bow to students anger in Assam.

Current unrest hasn’t yet reached that stage yet, but then widespread distrust of government among youth is an ominous sign. Students protests are unprecedented. It has gone far beyond left and right. Earlier one recognises it, the better.

First mistake : Not excluding Assam from CAA

Total rejection, street protests, de-communalising opposition to CAA.

I dont know how and WHY Hemanto Sarma and some others in Assam BJP convinced the union govt that Assam would accept the act? Nearly half a century ago, they were the first to warn the country of problems caused by large-scale Bangladeshi influx. They were the first to oppose the CAA.
It was relentless agitation of students of Assam who despite brutal suppression by state which killed nearly a thousand youth, brought the union govt to its knees. Students grudgingly agreed to Assam Accord which set the cut off date for illegal foreign settlers to 1971. Even that date continued to rankle the Assamese -why 1971 for us when for the rest of the country it remained 1951. Why, exactly why, did anyone think that they will suddenly, without any consultation or dialogue accept undoing of sacrifices of a generation of Asamese?

The Assemese people rejected it totally and vehemently. Assam immediately erupted in protests, police and CRPF killed at least 5 students in first 2 days. They dont forget their dead. The story of post CAA Assam is yet to be written.

If all that hadn’t happened nothing would have followed.

Meanwhile, political opponents and Muslims hardliner leadership in rest of India who had to restrain themselves as Art. 370, Triple Talaq and Ram temple issues passed by, fearing counter mobilisation of Hindus and consequent advantage to BJP, now saw an opening. Assamese rejection of CAA was not about Muslims or Hindus. It wasnt to be a ‘Muslim issue’. It took them some time but it worked. Covered by a certain notion of constitunalism, mobilisation began, blowing open the lid over discontent brewing within. The students and youth of Assam had once again stolen and run away with the carefully crafted union govt narrative.

Second Mistake : Police violence on students

The emotional trigger

Delhi police was orderded to thrash JNU students after switching off street lights leaving hundreds badly injured as they marched to parliament to submit their grievance. Just as similar accounts of brutal violence on students emerged from other campuses, Jamia happened .

They beat up girls, boys in libraries and hostels and lawns of university, raining lathis on their heads as they fell down unconscious. The images, visuals and first hand accounts were heart wrenching. An IIS, Bangaluru professor’s daughter told of her friend studying in Jamia “she cried all night and her frail body quivered and shook, as if in spasms every 30 seconds…”. She said her friend wasn’t even hit by anyone, she just witnessed the brutal attack. As she walked, dazed , from library to hostel she saw boys drenched in blood, lying unconscious om sidewalks. “She didn’t want to study anymore …she said she wanted to go home”. Similar, far more vivid accounts of violence flooded the social media and online watering holes of youth of India.
This was the emotional trigger which quickly galvanised students and youth countrywide, most of whom till the other day didn’t even care about CAA.

Third Mistake : Attack on students by vigilante groups

Distrust and erosion of authority

Masked vigilante mob entered JNU and beat up protesting students and teachers on a totally unrelated issue of fee hike- soon local campus protests against fee hike became an international issue of brutality against students and their democratic right to protest and agitate. Apparent and abundant complicity of police and JNU administration in violence on campus created a credibility crisis-a critical ingredient necessary to fuel anti govt. agitation. This issue of complicity of JNU administration and police in violence is more damaging than violence itself as it widens trust deficit- revs up degrees of distrust of govt. The incident sparked fresh round protests across the country.

While some may rejoice and others angered by these events, the govt’s more serious interests were getting compromised. Huge resources had to be deployed in outreach programmes and campaigns. It is ironic that a defiant, socially immature VC of a university is allowed to derail govt’s wider, more important national objectives.

As stated earlier we haven’t yet reached the state of total student and youth unrest; and yet erosion of trust and credibility of authority and state, anger over violence on students is beginning to show. Rebellion, a natural attitude among the young is presented with an occasion and cause. And youth never miss an opportunity coming their way. Unless government proactively addresses the situation, it may, de facto, be forcing a usually apathetic, aloof class of youth to rebel.

This agitation, executed by political forces of various hues, catalysed by repeated provocations, has spread all over the country. People joined in for their own reasons with their own slogans. It is futile to argue on issues of political or ideological stance of supporters etc. Of course, all manner of opponents of this govt will join in. This is the natural history of progression of any agitation. Having opened a battle front you can’t complain who all join your opponents.

Since ‘the advisors’ show no signs of even admitting their mistakes, more mistakes will keep happening in days and weeks to come and CAA will only get more discredited, more difficult to implement while discontent may even widen or spill over to other sections affecting more areas of govt functioning.

Shailendra Dhar