Kenya’s imports from India nearly doubled in the six months to August 2026 amid the US-Israel war against Iran, which has disrupted global trade routes and reshaped international supply chains for petroleum products.

Fresh data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that imports from India rose 92 percent to Sh282.15 billion between March and August 2026, up from Sh147 billion in the same period last year.
The Sh135.15 billion increase saw India overtake the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as Kenya’s second-largest source of goods after China.

The KNBS data shows that the jump in purchases from India this year contrasted with imports from the UAE, which fell 51.1 percent to Sh78.18 billion from Sh159.81 billion over the same six months since the war broke out.
The divergence was also evident in the broader January-to-August period, when imports from India jumped more than three-quarters (77.5 percent) to Sh335.59 billion from Sh189.05 billion a year earlier.
Over the same eight months, imports from the UAE dropped 38.8 percent to Sh131.92 billion from Sh215.67 billion, leaving India ahead by more than Sh203 billion.
During the month of August, India’s exports to Kenya surged 166.87 percent to Sh64.35 billion from Sh24.11 billion a year ago, accounting for a 22.6 percent share of the total import bill compared with 10.99 percent in the same month of 2025.
“China, India and Japan were Kenya’s leading sources of imports in August 2026, with import values of Sh83.3 billion, Sh64.3 billion and Sh12.3 billion, respectively. Notably, the value of imports from India increased by 14.7 per cent from Sh56.1 billion recorded in July 2026,” KNBS said.
India’s growing role reflects its position as a manufacturing and refining hub supplying a broad range of goods, including medicines, agricultural commodities, petroleum products and industrial raw materials.
The KNBS trade numbers cover all imported goods and do not isolate petroleum products, meaning the increase in India’s sales cannot be attributed entirely to fuel.
The figures, however, point to a shift in sourcing patterns as geopolitical tensions forced importers to reassess suppliers, shipping routes and delivery arrangements.
The increased risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime passage for global oil and gas supplies, have forced Gulf oil majors to seek alternative loading points outside the Middle East region following the US and Israel war against Iran.

Under the Government-to-Government (G-to-G) fuel deal signed in March 2023, Kenya relies on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) and Saudi Aramco for petroleum supplies under a 180-day credit arrangement.
Although the three State-owned petroleum suppliers are based in the Gulf region, the arrangement does not require all cargoes destined for Kenya to be loaded in the Middle East. For close to two years, supplies from Aramco, ADNOC and ENOC were mainly loaded from ports in the Arabian Gulf, but the US-Israel war with Iran forced a change in the logistics pattern to avoid attacks on vessels on the Strait of Hormuz.
The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Epra), the sector regulator, has indicated in the latest annual report to June that alternative ports in India and Europe have become increasingly important as the unresolved Middle East conflict complicates established shipping routes.
For instance, analysis of Epra shows that Kenya sourced 25.26 percent of its G-to-G products from hubs in India and Europe in the year to June 2026. In the period, Nairobi sourced 14.43 percent of its G-to-G fuel stocks, or 1,137,173.34 cubic metres, from India, 7.7 percent from Belgium and a further 3.13 percent from the Netherlands.
Petroleum products destined for Kenya were lifted from Antwerp-Bruges in Belgium, Sikka in India, and Jizan on the coast of the Red Sea—marking a shift from the past, when Kenya mainly relied on fuel loaded at ports in the Arabian Gulf.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are Kenya’s traditional major sources of refined fuel, accounted for 31.85 percent and 30.7 percent of the total fuel imports in the year.

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